Correction Of The Population Count As A Prerequisite For Population Research


 

In Germany, Britain, Austria, Sweden, Norway and Denmark you do not depict the reality from the official based information when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related.

                 StatistikBanken (SB; the official source of DK population statistics; http://www.statistikbanken.dk/)
 

publishes immigrant statistics each year for: 1) Total DK Population, 2) Number of foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin distributed on citizenship including children born abroad, 3) Number of naturalizations of the year including the children born before the naturalization. The children born to foreign citizens/citizens of foreign origin in DK are counted as Danish citizens and so are the children born to naturalized citizens after the naturalization. SB also maps a number of so-called immigrants and their descendants deviating even more from a proper statistical recording in population-related research. The total common birth rate and the total common mortality rate are also published each year.

This legal place-of-birth types of classification means that it becomes increasingly difficult with time to tell apart ethnic Danish citizens from Danish citizens of foreign origin, and that we can no longer reliably identify citizens by COO, nor determine the exact number of children by citizens by COO in the official statistical bulletins. One consequence of this ethnic mix-up is that it artificially raises estimates of ethnic Danish (sub)-fertility, and lowers the typically higher fertility of citizens of foreign origin, as will be documented below. Another consequence of the legal ethnic mix-up is that it prevents an objective analysis of the effect of immigration from various countries on Danish phenotypic and genotypic IQ. A proper demographic analysis requires information about the number of children born to foreign citizens and the number of children born to naturalized citizens year by year.

The present analysis is actually based on official counts from SB, but uses them in a way that, at least partly, circumvents the mix-up problem. A download was first made January 1st. 1979 to determine the actual number of citizens and people of foreign origin with an address in DK and registered in the central person register.

Changes in the status for 1979 were then checked January 1st. 1980 and again each January 1st. for the following years until January 1st. 2010 with respect to 1) the number of foreign citizens the year, 2) the estimated number of children born to all foreign citizens in DK, 3) the number of naturalized individuals, and 4) the estimated number of children born to all naturalized individuals the year based on the total birth rates given by United Nations (UN: http://un.org/esa/) for each of the 235 COOs, and on the total common mortality rates for DK. The difference between the total published population count and the partly estimated number of citizens of foreign origin provided here is the estimated residual number of ethnic Danes.

On January 1st. 1980, the birth rates for the 235 COOs and the total common mortality rate in DK constituted the  “interest rates” of increases for the status in January 1st. 1979. The number of foreign citizens and the number of naturalized citizens in1979 were then added. This process was repeated the following year (1981) based on status per January 1st. 1980, and each ensuing year.

The model for analysis was thus to retro-correct the official population counts for 1979-2010 for each of the 235 COOs in a year-by-year fashion, by balancing the ratios of official UN birth rates (b) against the total common mortality rate for DK (d) for the year immediately before, and add the increases in the number of citizens of foreign origin (ifo) and naturalized people (inp).

This annuity model:

Status count 1979 x (1+(b-d)/1.000) + ifo + inp

was administered each 1st.January throughout the period 1979-2010.

The retro-estimated numbers for 1979-2010 were then used for projection of further population growth for the period 2011 to 2072. 1) the average of ethnic Danish net emigration of 2700 per year for the period of 1997-2007; 2) The UN-recommended birth rates for all developed countries of 9.6,  reduced by 1/10 of a point from 2032 and every seventh year forward (even though we estimated it to be 9.3 at January 1st. 2010 by a weighted average based on the UN-recommended foreign birth rates; 3) The official SB registration of the population count and the total common birth- and mortality rates in DK, where the total mortality rate is the arithmetic average of the rates 2007-2009; 4) The net number new immigrants per year for each the 235 COOs, where the average is calculated from the numbers for the latest seven years.

The annuity method presented above was also applied in the projection, but the last two parts of the formula (ifo + inp) were substituted by the number of net immigration per year, that is, 17.170.

The national average IQs, provided by Lynn and Vanhanen (2006) were then weighted separately for each country each year according to its proportional numerical presence in DK, and presented as retro-estimated IQs categorized into 5 IQ bands for 1979-2010. The weighed IQs were then projected for the period 2011-2072.

The official number of citizens of foreign descendence January 1 and the official number of naturalized each year, the total number of citizens in Denmark are given by SB. The parameters are the birth rates of the foreign descendants in their origin (in the case of 14 p.c. difference) recommended by UN, and the total and separate birth- and mortality rates in Denmark build the net growth rate by births as shown above. An even more realistic collection of foreign birthsrates (as we demonstrate) shows a result that diviates even 26 p.c. from the official count January 1th 2010.

Retro-analysis and Projection On the Danish Counts

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